The Democrats now appear favored to prevail in both of their Senate races in Georgia, and therefore are the favorites to take control of the U.S. Senate. The two Republican candidates hold small leads in the vote count, and still have a chance to hold onto those advantages, but most of the remaining vote is in Democratic-leaning areas.
The largest block of remaining ballots is the in-person vote in DeKalb County, a heavily Democratic area that includes part of Atlanta. Those votes alone could break for the Democrats by 120,000 ballots. Over all, the two Democratic candidates are favored to win the remaining vote by around nine percentage points, according to Upshot estimates.
Democrats benefited from a strong turnout among Black voters, who are on track to represent a much larger share of the electorate than they did in the general election, based on the turnout by precinct and early voting data.
With about 15 percent of the vote left to count, the Rev. Raphael Warnock’s projected lead over Senator Kelly Loeffler is larger than Jon Ossoff’s projected lead over David Perdue. It’s hard to say when either race will be called. The Ossoff-Perdue call might have to wait until late absentee and provisional ballots are counted.